Recently, silver prices have fallen significantly from their yearly highs, and many PV plant owners and recyclers are asking: silver prices have dropped, so will the recycling purchase price of end-of-life PV modules also be adjusted downward accordingly? Would selling now mean taking a loss? Before answering this question, however, it is necessary to first understand the unique "dual-track pricing system" in the current PV recycling market—between compliant enterprises and gray channels, there is a price gap jointly created by environmental protection investment and tax costs.

When compliant recycling companies quote prices for end-of-life modules, the core logic is: first calculate the floor value of the aluminum frame → then add the expected return from silver paste → subtract dismantling + transportation + environmental protection costs + taxes = recycling purchase quotation. Fluctuations in silver paste returns directly affect the final quotation.

At present, there are actually two pricing systems coexisting in the PV recycling market:

Compliant recycling companies sign contracts + issue reverse invoices/special invoices, have environmental protection investment, pay value-added tax + income tax, and some also need to withhold personal income tax for reverse invoicing, with complete cost coverage, so their quotations tend to be conservative.

Small workshops/individual dismantling sites conduct private cash transactions, do not issue invoices, offer "tax-exclusive cash prices", and have environmental protection investment close to zero (open-air burning/rough crushing, no environmental assessment), pay no value-added tax, no income tax, and have no invoice circulation, allowing them to quote higher prices than compliant enterprises to compete for supply.

Used module traders make large-volume cash purchases → resale/export, and likewise often use personal bank cards to collect payments, do not issue invoices, or underreport customs declarations. Their quotations for modules suitable for cascade utilization are particularly aggressive, often surpassing compliant channels.

It is precisely this dual advantage of "tax-free + zero environmental protection" that allows gray channels to maintain relatively high prices to compete for supply even when silver prices correct, slowing the decline of overall market recycling quotations—but it also creates a situation where "bad money drives out good", leaving compliant enterprises often "unable to secure supply".

Now that spot silver prices have retreated from the year’s highs, theoretically recyclers’ purchase quotations for scrap laminated modules will be correspondingly adjusted slightly downward.

But the decline is usually "cushioned" by the following factors:

• Small workshops competing with high prices: as described above, small workshops with no tax and no environmental protection costs can lock in supply with higher cash prices, supporting the floor price in local markets.
• Independent value of aluminum frames: if aluminum prices remain high, the frame floor value can support the lower limit of quotations.
• Supply remains tight: the current actual retirement volume is far below capacity expectations, with fewer than 20 compliant enterprises and about 5000 registered and unregistered recycling entities competing for a limited amount of supply.
• Modules suitable for cascade utilization: old panels with still relatively high power output and suitable for secondary circulation are priced based on power generation performance and second-hand market demand, and are hardly affected by silver prices.

• Misaligned pricing anchor: they do not look at current silver prices, nor do they calculate current dismantling costs, but instead reverse purchase prices from "the highest level silver prices may reach in the future" or "optimistic expectations for the resale of used modules".
• Stockpiling in anticipation of price increases: these players compete for supply at high prices not to process and circulate it immediately, but to accumulate modules in warehouses, betting that silver prices will return to high levels in the coming months, or that a rebound in new module prices will drive up used panel prices.

1. Silver prices fail to meet expectations: once silver prices, as in the current trend, remain fluctuating at low levels and fail to return to previous highs, the modules stockpiled at high prices will face huge floating losses, and as storage and capital costs increase, the losses will continue to expand.
2. Break in the capital chain: PV recycling is a capital-intensive, long-cycle industry, and high-price stockpiling heavily ties up cash flow. When financing channels tighten or new funds cannot continue, a break in the capital chain will be instantaneous and fatal.
3. Panic selling: when these speculators realize silver prices will not recover, they often dump inventory regardless of cost in order to recover funds and fill financial gaps. This will cause recycling prices to collapse and trigger a stampede effect across the entire industry.